A pilot test of decimal stock trading has reduced the gap between
bid and asked prices for the securities, as expected, but also has
affected shares in a way that could be troubling to regulators and
investors alike, Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman
Arthur Levitt said Thursday.
The switch to decimals from fractions for a sample of stocks on
the New York Stock Exchange, which began at the end of the
summer, has resulted in dramatically smaller quantities of a
particular stock being offered at a given price, Levitt said.
"As usual, the market has thrown us a few curves, suggesting
forces at work that few predicted," Levitt said in a prepared speech
to the Security Traders Association in Boca Raton, Fla.
That quote size -- the number of shares offered at a given price
-- is significant because it affects how meaningful a quoted price
is, and the so-called depth of a stock. When quote sizes are
reduced, the question then becomes: If an investor places an order
for a stock at a listed price, but can't buy it because the number
of shares available at that price is small (due to decimal trading),
how credible is the price quote?
But Levitt cautioned that the pilot program results are so
preliminary that it's difficult to reach even tentative conclusions.
Still, he said an analysis of the decimal trading on the Big
Board stocks so far found no dramatic increase in volume of trades
-- contrary to what some experts had predicted would happen.
The NYSE, which provided the SEC with the preliminary analysis,
declined to comment on Levitt's statement or on the perceived
reduction in quote sizes with decimal trading. "We're continuing to
evaluate the impact" of the decimal conversion, NYSE spokesman Ray
Pellecchia said.
The pilot program began
at the end of August, with the conversion of 13 stocks on the
NYSE and the American Stock Exchange to trading increments of
one penny rather than eighths of a dollar, which has been the
standard for decades. A second phase of the test began last month
with conversion of a total of 64 stocks on the NYSE and 48 stocks on
the Amex. The test is a precursor to the scheduled full conversion
of U.S. securities markets to decimal trading by next spring.
The conclusions Levitt quoted were bolstered by a second analysis
of the decimal pilot program released Thursday. That analysis, by
Purdue University associate professor Sugato Chakravarty and
University of Memphis professor Robert Wood, found a dramatic
reduction in quote size in the stocks converted to trading in
decimals.
Their analysis also found decimal trading had shrunk the spread
between bid and asked prices for securities.
Reducing that spread has long been a goal of supporters of the
shift to decimal trading, including Levitt and members
of Congress, who've maintained that bringing the purchase and
offer prices closer together could save investors millions of
dollars.
If decimal trading is reducing quote size, that calls into
question one of the fundamental benefits the NYSE purports to offer
investors compared with electronic exchanges like the Nasdaq
and electronic communications networks, or ECNs. Trades on the Big
Board are handled by an auction system in which buyers' orders are
coupled with sellers' offers on the exchange's physical trading
floor. That arrangement has offered a "depth" that electronic
exchanges can't rival, the NYSE has claimed.
The NYSE also has said it is ready for full decimal trading,
while Nasdaq held up the overall conversion of the U.S. markets
until next year, claiming
its technology wasn't prepared to handle the anticipated increase in
quote traffic with penny trades.
A reduction in quote size due to decimalization also raises
questions about so-called transparency, or the ability of investors
and other market participants to see how many shares are being
offered or sought at a given price.
"Within a few months, penny increments will prevail market wide,"
Levitt said Thursday.
"Seriously, I know there are important differences of opinion
about how, and for some, even whether to move towards deeper pricing
transparency in our markets," he said. "If, as a marketplace we fail
to embrace a level of transparency clear enough for penny
increments, there will be no good excuse behind which we can hide."